Aryna Sabalenka arrived in New York chasing history. She will also have to fight to retain her place at the top of the rankings. The world No. 1 is bidding to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open singles titles. Having lifted the trophy in 2024 and 2025, Sabalenka knows exactly what it takes to thrive under the lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium. As the top seed and defending champion, she remains the player to beat, yet this year’s women’s draw feels particularly open.
The numbers tell the story. Seven different women have won the past seven Grand Slam tournaments, underlining how competitive the women’s game has become. In New York, four players — Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff — have a route to finishing the tournament as world No. 1.
Sabalenka, however, remains the benchmark. She has made a composed start to her title defence, but the challenge will grow as the tournament progresses. Winning a Grand Slam is difficult enough; doing so while carrying the expectation of a potential three-peat presents an entirely different test.
Then there is Rybakina. The Kazakh arrives as the No. 2 seed and reigning Australian Open champion, giving her two Grand Slam titles and considerable momentum at the majors. There were fitness concerns after an ankle injury forced her to retire in Cincinnati, but she answered those questions with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over American wild card Thea Frodin in her opening match. She also has a huge incentive beyond the trophy: reaching the semi-finals would guarantee that she becomes world No. 1 for the first time.
Coco Gauff, meanwhile, may be the player arriving with the greatest sense of momentum.
The 2023 US Open champion entered this year’s tournament after winning Cincinnati — her first title of the season — and opened her campaign with a convincing 6-3, 6-4 win over Zeynep Sonmez. More importantly, the American appears to have made meaningful progress with one of the biggest concerns in her game: her serve. A more consistent toss and subtle technical adjustments have given her greater reliability, and that could prove crucial over two weeks in New York.
Gauff is also approaching the tournament with a noticeably different mindset. Rather than allowing the expectations surrounding a home Grand Slam to dominate her thinking, she has spoken about trying to enjoy the experience. That could be significant. She already knows how to win in New York; the question is whether she can reproduce that level while carrying the expectations that come with being one of the favourites.
Jessica Pegula is another player who cannot be overlooked. The world No. 3 has established herself as one of the most consistent players at the top of the women’s game, but a maiden Grand Slam title remains the biggest prize missing from her resumé. She has reached the US Open final before and now has another opportunity to turn consistency into the biggest title of her career.
And then there is Iga Swiatek. The former US Open champion enters New York with renewed confidence after winning the Canadian Open in Toronto and reaching the semi-finals in Cincinnati. The six-time Grand Slam champion has been working with coach Francisco Roig on improving her serve and forehand, and there have already been signs of a resurgence. She began her campaign with a commanding 6-2, 6-3 victory over Wang Xiyu and is looking to rediscover the level that took her to the US Open title in 2022.
Beyond the established names, the draw has enough young talent and proven Grand Slam pedigree to make predictions even harder. Mirra Andreeva, Amanda Anisimova, Naomi Osaka and others have the ability to disrupt the expected order. That is perhaps what makes this year’s women’s tournament so compelling.
That leaves one question hanging over New York: will the US Open produce a new chapter in an increasingly unpredictable and competitive era of women’s tennis?
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