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India’s rapidly expanding solar energy capacity is fundamentally transforming the country’s electricity grid, shifting the sector’s biggest challenge from generating enough power to managing when that power is available, according to a new paper titled “The Duck and The Camel: Tracing the Net Load on the Indian Power Grid” authored by Sanjeev Sanyal and Satvik Dev.
The report highlights that while solar power has significantly increased daytime electricity generation, its intermittent nature has created new operational challenges for the grid. With abundant solar energy available during daylight hours and little generation after sunset, grid operators are increasingly struggling to meet surging evening demand.
Two Distinct Demand Patterns
The study identifies two emerging net-load patterns across seasons.
During the summer, the grid exhibits the well-known “Duck Curve,” where high solar generation causes electricity demand on conventional power plants to dip sharply during midday before rising steeply in the evening as solar output declines.
In winter, however, the researchers observe a “Bactrian Camel Curve,” characterized by two separate demand peaks—one in the morning and another in the evening—with a solar-driven dip in between.
Evening Ramps Growing Sharper
According to the report, India’s evening electricity ramp has nearly doubled within three years.
The summer evening ramp increased from 36 GW in 2023 to 74 GW in 2026, while the winter evening ramp rose from 27 GW to 65 GW during the same period. This rapid increase underscores the growing need for flexible power resources capable of responding quickly to changing demand.
Electricity Prices Mirror Supply Imbalance
The study also notes that electricity market prices increasingly reflect the imbalance between daytime oversupply and evening shortages.
Excess solar generation has pushed midday electricity prices sharply lower, while evening prices frequently reach the market ceiling of ₹10 per kWh, indicating tight supply conditions after sunset.
Rising Solar Curtailment
Despite growing renewable generation, the report reveals that significant volumes of clean energy are being wasted.
In May 2026, approximately 24 GWh of solar electricity per day was curtailed because the grid lacked sufficient capacity to absorb excess daytime generation. Ironically, power shortages continued to occur later in the evening when solar output had disappeared.
Battery Storage Identified as Critical Gap
The authors identify Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as the most critical missing component in India’s energy transition.
While India has made considerable progress toward its pumped-storage goals, battery deployment remains well below required levels. The paper estimates that nearly 130 GWh of battery storage would be necessary simply to reduce a typical summer evening ramp by half.
Policy Measures Recommended
To address the growing flexibility challenge, the report recommends a series of policy interventions, including:
- Accelerating deployment of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
- Providing legal recognition for energy storage under the Electricity Act.
- Expanding the use of Contracts for Difference (CfDs).
- Strengthening non-fossil purchase obligations.
- Introducing wider implementation of time-of-day electricity tariffs.
- Expanding demand response programmes.
- Encouraging rooftop solar consumers to install battery storage through targeted incentives.
Flexibility, Not Generation, Is the Future Challenge
The report concludes that India’s electricity sector has entered a new phase. Rather than facing a shortage of power generation capacity, the country now faces a shortage of grid flexibility.
As renewable energy continues to expand, the authors argue that large-scale battery storage, smarter demand-side management, and modern electricity market reforms will be essential to maintain reliable and affordable power while minimizing renewable energy wastage.
