Paromita Das
New Delhi, 11th September: Bihar’s politics has always been a story of shifting sands—alliances forged and broken, caste loyalties recalibrated, and leaders navigating through a restless electorate. At the center of today’s contest stand two very different figures: Nitish Kumar, the long-serving political veteran, and Tejashwi Yadav, the young face of Bihar’s opposition. Both represent two eras and two approaches to governance. But as the state looks ahead, the question remains—who is more credible, and who stands a better chance of becoming the next Chief Minister?
Nitish Kumar: The Veteran’s Journey
Nitish Kumar’s career has been defined by his ability to adapt. Often referred to as “Sushasan Babu,” he first rose to prominence as a leader who could offer Bihar stability after decades of chaos under Lalu Prasad Yadav’s rule. His focus on roads, electricity, women’s education, and law and order helped reshape Bihar’s image from a state synonymous with backwardness to one of gradual progress.
Yet, his political longevity is not without cost. Nitish has switched alliances multiple times, partnering with both the BJP and the RJD at different stages. This flexibility has helped him stay in power but has also raised questions about his ideological consistency. Many voters today see him as a seasoned administrator but one whose political credibility has weakened due to repeated U-turns.
Tejashwi Yadav: The Young Challenger
Tejashwi Yadav represents the other end of Bihar’s political spectrum. As the son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, his career began under the shadow of his father’s legacy—one celebrated by loyal supporters and criticized by detractors who equate it with misrule. Over the years, Tejashwi has managed to craft his own identity, positioning himself as a voice for youth, jobs, and social justice.
At just 35, Tejashwi already has the experience of serving as Deputy Chief Minister. His performance in the 2020 Assembly elections, where the RJD emerged as the single largest party, cemented his status as a serious contender. His speeches resonate strongly with younger voters, and his promise of employment continues to be his biggest political weapon.
Credibility and Popularity
When it comes to credibility, Nitish Kumar has the advantage of proven governance. His record on law and order, infrastructure, and education is tangible, and many Biharis still acknowledge his role in lifting the state from decline. However, his frequent alliance shifts dilute the trust factor, especially among young and urban voters who crave stability.
Tejashwi, meanwhile, enjoys popularity but faces questions of credibility due to his inexperience and association with the RJD’s past baggage. His charisma and ability to mobilize crowds are undeniable, but whether he can translate that into effective governance remains the key question.
Supporting Parties and Vote Banks
Bihar’s politics cannot be understood without caste dynamics. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) draws strength from Kurmi and Koeri voters, with a share of Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and women who trust his welfare programs. His alliance with the BJP secures upper-caste voters and sections of the urban middle class, giving him a balanced but fragile coalition.
Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD remains the strongest party among Yadavs and enjoys significant backing from Muslim voters. Together, this Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination forms a powerful bloc. He also appeals to unemployed youth and rural poor who feel disillusioned with Nitish’s promises.
Regional parties also play a crucial role. Smaller Dalit and OBC outfits tilt the balance during close contests, and both Nitish and Tejashwi know that coalition arithmetic is as important as individual popularity.
Ratio of Chances: A Balanced Equation
If Bihar elections were held today, Nitish Kumar would still be a strong contender due to his administrative experience and BJP’s backing. However, his declining popularity among young voters and fatigue with his leadership mean that his dominance is no longer unquestioned.
Tejashwi Yadav’s chances are rising steadily. His ability to connect emotionally with the masses, particularly youth, gives him an edge in mobilization. Yet, he needs to reassure middle-class and business voters that he can provide stability beyond rhetoric.
In terms of probability, one could say Nitish Kumar still holds a 55% chance of retaining power, while Tejashwi has about a 45% chance of wresting it. The equation could easily flip depending on alliances, campaign momentum, and how the youth vote crystallizes.
Bihar’s Choice
Bihar stands at a crossroads. Nitish Kumar offers continuity, tested governance, and the backing of a national party, but risks being seen as a leader past his prime. Tejashwi Yadav offers energy, hope, and a generational shift, but must prove he can govern with credibility and not just campaign with slogans.
The future of Bihar’s leadership will not be determined by one leader’s strength alone but by the shifting alliances and aspirations of its people. Whether Bihar chooses stability in Nitish or change in Tejashwi, the decision will reflect the deeper question of what its citizens value more—experience or fresh energy.
Experience or Change?
The contest between Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav is more than a personal rivalry—it is a clash of two political visions. On one hand, Nitish embodies experience, governance, and the reassurance of tested policies, though tainted by political U-turns and declining popularity. On the other, Tejashwi represents a generational shift, speaking directly to the aspirations of Bihar’s youth, while still grappling with questions about his ability to govern effectively.
Ultimately, Bihar’s choice will reveal whether its people want to continue with seasoned leadership or embrace a bold change. Both leaders have their strengths and flaws, but the outcome will depend on how convincingly they can align their narratives with the evolving aspirations of a state that refuses to remain stuck in its past.
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